Who Would Win Euro 2024 Based on Current Uefa Association Club Coefficients?

The full line up is confirmed for the European Championships this summer and many fans and bookmakers are currently trying to settle on their favourites for the event. Form sometimes goes out the window in major tournaments and surprise packages can also emerge. Just look at Greece in 2004. Each nation will go into the tournament thinking they have a chance. However, who would emerge victorious if the competition was decided by UEFA country club coefficients from the current season? There might be a surprise or two along the way.

Early Exits and Surprise Packages

It would not cause a massive shock if nations such as Georgia, Serbia, Albania, Romania, or Slovenia were to exit at the group stage. These are the weakest five nations based on the coefficient metric. However, above them, Ukraine, Hungary, and Austria will want to defy their lowly ranks and qualify from their respective groups. 

The three would eventually miss out on the four best third place qualifying positions with those spots going to Switzerland, Croatia, Poland, and Turkey. However, some might be surprised by Slovakia’s and Czech Republic’s inclusions amongst the usual European powerhouses, the latter as group winners in a group that includes Portugal and Turkey. They have the two Prague teams to thank for this, due to their progress in the Europa League this season.

Who Would Lift the Coefficient Cup?

UEFA Country Coefficients 2024 - Current Season

As we move into the crunch stage of the tournament, the gaze starts to divert to the teams towards the top of the coefficient rankings. If sports betting was to go by ranking, then the eventual final four would be made up of France, Germany, England, and Italy, but in which order? Betting markets could have any of these elite nations as their favourites, but the odds would point towards Italy (17.714) retaining their European Championship crown, due to the strong performances from Italian sides so far, mainly in the Europa League. 

However, current tournament favourites England (16.250) would only have the third/fourth place play off to play for as it stands. Despite their secure position in third place ahead of France (14.750), the matches between West Ham United vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Arsenal vs FC Bayern Munich could determine whether they leapfrog Germany (16.357) into the final against Italy, in what would be a repeat of the 2021 final at Wembley. 

But regardless of who they play, Italy would emerge victorious and secure back-to-back European Championship success. For the rest, they will have to wait another four years for another crack at glory. This summer though, will we see the same protagonists reach the latter stages? One thing is certain, we are in for a festival of football.