Six Nations Is France’s to Lose But Three in Hunt

Posted on
France vs Wales
France vs Wales (Credit Fabienkhan via Wikipedia)

The 2025 Six Nations began back on the 31st of January when France and Wales kicked things off in Paris. A month and a half on from that we head into a final day where two-thirds of the teams could still land the title. Admittedly, Scotland would need a miracle to rise from fourth to first but sporting miracles occur with far greater frequency than Vatican-sanctioned real-world ones, so we won’t be ruling anything out.

Examining the Stats


Only wooden spoon contenders Itay and woeful Wales are categorically out of the battle though, and so we could be in for a thrilling day of action. That said, France, who set the tone for their, and Wales’ tournament, when they hammered their opponents 43-0 in that opening clash, very much have the ball in their court. That is shown by the Championship odds, which also illustrate what little hope the Scots really have.

  • France: 1/8
  • England: 10/1
  • Ireland: 25/1
  • Scotland: 1000/1

Before it all began, France were narrow favourites, priced at around 13/8, just a shade shorter than Ireland at about 15/8. However, a close and perhaps unpredictable tournament was, well, predicted, with England 7/2 and Scotland 7/1. In other words, the four teams that can – in theory – still win, were always believed to have no worse than a 7/1 chance of lifting the trophy.

Fast forward a few weeks and it looked like Ireland virtually had things sewn up after three games, as they boasted the tournament’s only 100% record, with a perfect three wins from three. Moreover, their remaining games were against France, crucially at home, and then Italy. The defending champions were odds-on to win the Championship and well fancied for the Grand Slam but they well and truly came unstuck in that key battle with the French.

Points Difference

Their 27-42 defeat in Dublin was a huge surprise and meant that they dropped from first to third, behind England and table-topping France, as below:

Rank Team Points Points Difference
1 France 16 +106
2 England 15 +20
3 Ireland 14 +13
4 Scotland 11 +3
5 Italy 4 -77
6 Wales 3 -65

The Final Day


There are an incredible number of different permutations as to how things might pan out on the final day, with the possibility of bonus points complicating matters. Each game in the final round takes place on Saturday but the three fixtures are spread throughout the day. The clashes and kick-off times are as follows:

  1. Italy v Ireland, 2.15pm
  2. Wales v England, 4.45pm
  3. France v Scotland, 8pm

It offers a sensational day of rugby for fans of the sport and the fact that France are set to play last means that the tension should go right down to the wire. As the odds indicate, the current leaders should win the trophy this year, but if Ireland and England both win beforehand, the pressure will really be on the hosts at the Stade de France and in such circumstances, anything can happen.

It should not be forgotten, either, that the favourites will be without the brilliant Antoine Dupont. Their talismanic skipper was ruled out after a serious injury against Ireland and no side is so good that they would not feel the loss of one of the very best players in world rugby. Dupont’s absence might just give Scotland – and indeed England and Ireland – a glimmer of hope, so this might not be as easy as it might seem for France.

The Key Things to Note

Rugby Scrum
Credit Max2 via Bigstockphoto

There are almost countless permutations that bring all four possible outcomes into play but here we will focus on the basics. As such we will ignore Scotland, even though pretty much everyone else’s hopes rest with them. To win the Championship, the Scots need to beat France by a huge margin, earn a bonus point, stop France from getting one… and then hope that everything goes their way in the two other games too. They might win, but win by 50 or so points? We can forget that before we get to all the other pieces of the jigsaw that would need to fall into place.

The simplest place to start, therefore, is with France who play last but can win the title simply by taking maximum points from their final game. If they beat Scotland with an additional bonus point, nothing that anyone else does earlier in the day will matter. In fact, they probably wouldn’t even need to claim the extra point, such is their advantage in terms of points difference. It is hard to see England getting anywhere near enough points against Wales to overturn France’s current 86-point advantage in that regard. So, almost certainly, if France win, the title will be theirs.

If France slip up, the equations, permutations and possibilities welcome in a great deal more complexity. England are the next cab off the rank, waiting (pre-emptively at any rate) to pounce if their great rivals Scotland can, somehow, do them a favour. England’s simplest route to victory is to ensure they take maximum points, in which case anything but a France win will see them take the glory. There are a range of further ways in which Steve Borthwick’s men can get their hands on the trophy but they range from the improbable to the near impossible.

Ireland’s chances are slim but should both of their rivals lose, victory with a bonus point would ensure they claim their third Six Nations title in a row. Again, beyond that there are more complex ways in which they might triumph, but really it is hard to see any of them coming to pass.

Sport is, of course, so unpredictable and that, plus its ability to evoke such powerful emotions, is what makes it so popular. Rugby fans around the British Isles and on the other side of the English Channel, or Gulf of France, or whatever it’s called, will be glued to their TVs throughout Saturday afternoon and evening. Should either Ireland or England still have hope heading into the later game you can be sure that Scotland will suddenly have a few million more fans than normal! Let the rugby begin!