The draw for the last 16 of the Champions League has been made, and with the Premier League providing six of those teams and – technically speaking – no mechanism in place to keep them apart, one might have expected to see at least one all Premier League round of 16 clash. However, the pre-determined bracket system and seeding meant it wasn’t an entirely random draw like that which takes place for the last 16 of the FA Cup.
As such, even before the draw was made, we knew that Newcastle versus Chelsea was the only possible all-English tie. As it transpired, those two were kept apart. However, as we shall see, both may well wish they hadn’t been. What this means, though, is that we now have the theoretical possibility of a UEFA Champions League quarter-final lineup that contains six English clubs! On the other hand, less optimistic followers of Premier League football might point out that we could also see none make the last eight. As is often the case, we suspect the reality will lie somewhere in the middle.
2025/26 UCL Round of 16 Draw
The confirmed round of 16 draw ✅#UCLdraw pic.twitter.com/PVhNIIZngZ
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) February 27, 2026
Seeded teams, those that finished in the top eight in the league phase, were kept apart. This octet will play their second legs of the ties at home, which is deemed to be a slight advantage. The unseeded teams are listed first in each case.
- PSG v Chelsea – first leg 11/3, second leg 17/3
- Galatasaray v Liverpool – 10/3, 18/3
- Real Madrid v Man City – 11/3, 17/3
- Atalanta v Bayern Munich – 10/3, 18/3
- Newcastle United v Barcelona – 10/3, 18/3
- Atletico Madrid v Tottenham Hotspur – 10/3, 18/3
- Bodo/Glimt v Sporting Lisbon – 11/3, 17/3
- Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal – 11/3, 17/3
With the competition using a bracket rather than a separate draw, we now know the possible pathways to the final for each remaining club. The winners of matches one and two, three and four, five and six, and seven and eight, respectively, will all meet in the quarters. That system will continue all the way to the final. So, for example, the quarter-final one will consist of the winner of PSG v Chelsea versus the successful team from the Galatasaray v Liverpool tie. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Will All Six English Sides Qualify?
We would have to see at least one major upset for all the remaining Premier League clubs to book their QF berths. Clearly, Newcastle face a massive challenge against Barca, and would almost certainly have preferred to play Chelsea. The Blues themselves, up against PSG, would, in turn, much rather have faced the Magpies.
Sticking with Eddie Howe’s troops, beaten by Everton at home shortly after the Champions League draw and languishing in 12th in the domestic standings, they are ranked a 2/1 shot to qualify, with their Catalan opponents priced at 2/5. Broadly speaking, that means the bookies give Newcastle about a 30% chance of progressing. Considering things another way, Barca are third favourites to win the competition at 13/2, with Newcastle out at 33/1.
Barca are currently top of La Liga and will present a huge obstacle, and it is a similar picture for Chelsea. PSG are top of Ligue 1 and are clear favourites to eliminate their Premier League opponents. The defending champions are fifth favourites overall, while the Blues are seventh in the bookies’ lists – but at well over double the price offered on the Paris side.
Of the English teams in the Champions League, unsurprisingly, it is Spurs who are deemed least likely to go all the way. They were 16th in the Premier League table, just four points clear of the relegation zone, when they learned that they would face Atletico Madrid in the last 16. Tottenham are the seeded side in the tie, somehow having finished fourth in the league phase. However, they are 50/1 to go all the way, with Atleti priced at just 1/2 to knock Spurs out. It might not be the worst thing for the north Londoners either, because they really need to give their all to survive in the Premier League.
The other club in Madrid – you might have heard of them – play Man City in what is clearly the most glamorous tie of the round. Neither side is really at their best right now, and both are second domestically and were unimpressive in the league phase of the UCL. Nonetheless, whoever prevails from this one, and City are big favourites, will feel they can go all the way in the competition.
What All-English Ties Might We See Next?
With Arsenal and Liverpool big favourites to see off Leverkusen and Galatasaray, respectively, we should see at least two, very probably three, and perhaps four Premier League sides make the last eight. Given that Italy only just managed to scrape one club into the round of 16, that illustrates just how strong the Premier League is right now.
Making predictions about what might happen too far ahead can often leave one with egg on their face. That said, we could perhaps see Liverpool and Man City clash in the first semi-final. That assumes the Reds beat (probably) PSG in the quarters, and City see off both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich! And should all that happen, we could just see an all-Premier League final once again, with Arsenal certainly in the easier half of the draw, with Barca their only major hurdle before the final.