We are now into the second half of the Premier League season, with almost all sides having played 20 games of the 38. As such, we have a pretty good idea of how this campaign is going to play out. At the time of writing, Liverpool look almost certain to win the title, whilst there is a clutch of sides who look likely to remain embroiled in a prolonged relegation battle.
The second half of the campaign can always bring surprises and in many years we have seen a team suffer either a catastrophic run of poor results or a brilliant streak of wins that totally change how their season ends up come May. However, it would take something really out of the ordinary for Southampton to stay up this term.
The Saints have made a truly woeful start to life back in the Premier League, having been promoted from the second tier last spring via the playoffs. In their 2023/24 Championship campaign they lost 11 of 46 games but in their first 20 top-flight clashes this term they have already tasted defeat a massive 16 times! Incredibly that means they have lost 80% of their matches in the Premier League. They have won just once, their three draws meaning that they have a mere six points with just 18 games left to play.
Southampton’s Season So Far
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) January 4, 2025
Historically teams promoted from the playoffs have often struggled and so it was no huge surprise when the Saints failed to hit the ground running. In the campaign in which they earned promotion they finished fourth, 10 points worse off than Leicester and nine behind Ipswich. It was clear they had a huge gulf to close if they were to be competitive and their transfer activity was relatively limited.
Inexperienced Players
Whilst they had a net spend of around £70m, they focussed on younger players who they believed had great promise but, at the same time, had only limited Premier League experience. Sadly, thus far those signings have failed to deliver and the man who brought them in, Russell Martin, was dismissed in December 2024.
Croatian, Ivan Juric, was brought in to replace him after Simon Rusk took interim control, managing a draw and a defeat in his two matches. Juric has a 100% record from his first three games as Saints boss… losing them all! Juric lasted just two months at Roma in his last managerial position and there are signs his stay on the south coast could be just as brief.
The club’s hierarchy was more patient with Russell than some fans might have liked and it is true that when they finally pulled the trigger the Saints were arguably already doomed. Juric faces an almost impossible task in the games ahead, as any possible replacement would have. The club might think that they could survive with as little as 34 points, so that could be a somewhat arbitrary target. 27 would have been enough in theory last term when Forest (and look at them now!) stayed up in 17th with just 32 points.
However, for the Saints to reach 34 they would have to take 28 points from their next 18 matches. That is more than 1.55 points per game, compared to their rate of 0.3 per clash thus far! 1.55 points works out at around 60 over the course of the season, which is typically enough for a team to finish in the top eight. It would be quite the turnaround.
Managed One Win
As said, thus far the club have managed just one win, with that coming in their 10th game, fortuitously, against Everton. They won 1-0, ending a sequence of eight defeats and a draw, their only other point at that stage coming via a home draw with fellow strugglers Ipswich. Since beating the Toffees they managed a draw at Brighton, their first away point, and then another at Fulham.
However, draws are clearly not enough and, worryingly for Southampton supporters, things are arguably getting worse, not better. In their opening 13 games they did not concede more than three goals in a match and only once did they lose by three (to Man United). In seven games since then they have suffered a 5-1 home loss to Chelsea, a 5-0 thumping against Spurs (also at home) and, last time out, another battering on home soil against Brentford.
That defeat to the Bees was perhaps the worst of the lot, again coming by a 5-0 scoreline but against a team that had failed to win on the road all season. Moreover, with all due respect to Brentford, they are not Chelsea, or even Spurs (though in fairness that win does leave them above Tottenham in the league!).
From Bad to Worse… to Worst?
Onto the next ✊ pic.twitter.com/udbc6XthkR
— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) December 27, 2024
For any football fans who think they have got it tough, Southampton’s recent run may offer a little solace. Or at least some healthy schadenfreude. Season ticket holders at St Mary’s have seen their team ship five goals three times in the last four, losing the other clash 1-0 to West Ham and mustering just a single home goal over the four outings.
Over the years there have been some genuinely dismal teams in the Premier League but could the Saints be about to plumb new depths? The worst team in the 30+ year history of the Premier League, at least statistically speaking, is Derby County. Back in 2007/08 the Rams managed just 11 points from 38 games. They won one game out of 38, losing 29 times and managing eight draws. They scored 20 goals and conceded a massive 89.
Downward Trajectory
That equates to 0.289 points per game, and a negative goal difference of 1.82 per clash. At present, the Saints have collected 0.3 points on average, with an average goal difference of minus 1.6. As things stand, Southampton are not quite on course to be as bad as Derby were, but that assumes they don’t continue on their current downward trajectory.
Back in 2007/08, Derby had seven points after their first 20 games, so were actually better off than the Saints are now. County took just two points from their final 13 matches of the season, and a similar sort of performance could yet see Juric’s men create a very unwanted record.
Second Worst Premier League Side Ever?
There is of course a long way to go and a lot of points to play for. However, even if the Saints do recover a little, Sunderland’s tally of just 15 points from 2005/06 could prove tough for them to reach, which would mean they would become the second-worst Premier League side ever. Happy New Year, Saints fans!