A rare thing happened this week: Liverpool lost a penalty shootout. They have quite a remarkable record when it comes to penalties, and it has certainly helped them add a lot of silverware to the trophy cabinet at Anfield. Over the years, they have come out on top from 12 yards to win the FA Cup, League Cup, Community Shield, UEFA Super Cup and the Champions League. Indeed, they have claimed most of those competitions thanks to spot-kicks on more than one occasion, including both domestic cup finals (both against Chelsea) in the 2021/22 season.
Their overall record on penalties is not perfect but they have won far more than they have lost, the figure for their success rate standing close to 75%. So, on Tuesday night, when their Champions League last 16 tie with PSG went to a shootout, Liverpool’s fans and players must have been very confident. With the game taking place at Anfield and history on their side, what could go wrong?
Well, as good as their own goalkeeper Alisson is, in Italy’s number one, Gianluigi Donnarumma, the French side arguably had the better stopper as far as penalties are concerned. And so, much as we might think it was an unexpected outcome that the Reds lost, from an alternative perspective, it was a highly predictable one in that Donnarumma came out on top.
England fans will remember all too well how hard it can be to score from 12 yards past the incredible young keeper. And he is, somehow, still young, despite having been around for what seems like decades and having made 70 appearances for his nation. The former AC Milan goalie only turned 26 at the end of February and, certainly for the position he plays, that qualifies him as a mere pup, especially when we consider that his predecessor with Gli Azzurri, fellow Gianluigi – Buffon – played international football from 1997 to 2018.
Early Breakthrough to Penalty Hero
Non molliamo mai. Siamo l’Italia. pic.twitter.com/5mf5aPxGtW
— GIANLUIGI DONNARUMMA (@donnarumma) June 21, 2024
Donnarumma made his Serie A debut for Milan aged just 16 and first played for Italy as a mere 17-year-old back in 2016. He may yet pass Buffon’s staggering haul of 176 Italy caps and, if his prowess in penalty shootouts continues, he could certainly help his national side to more major trophies. They beat England in the final of the delayed Euro 2020, but the less said about his two saves (and Marcus Rashford hitting the post for a third miss) in that shootout, the better.
That was far from his first win in a shootout though and his latest, against Liverpool, will not be his last. Donnarumma, who hails from the south of his country, near Naples, has been involved in seven penalty shootouts in total, with Milan, PSG and Italy. He has come out on top in six of those, so if penalties really are the lottery that many commentators like to suggest, the Italian should definitely invest in a Euromillions ticket.
He has triumphed in almost 86% of the penalty shootouts he has been involved in and if it was truly a lottery, one might have expected him to have won three or four out of seven. But does this mean, as a recent article on the BBC Sport website implied, that the PSG goalie is especially good at saving penalties?
What Do Donnarumma’s Stats Tell Us?
It cannot be argued that winning six out of seven shootouts is not an impressive record but there are two issues with inferring, from that, that the 6ft 5in stopper is “so good at saving penalties”. First, there are two sides to a penalty, the goalkeeper, and the taker, so just because Donnarumma has a good record, we can’t be certain it is down to him. He has always played in strong teams, who it can be expected have good penalty takers, so perhaps his success is down to that, rather than his own heroics.
The second issue to consider is whether or not six out of seven is, in fact, a particularly good record. The key point here is that it is a very small sample and it would only have taken, perhaps, a couple of penalties to have been different for his personal record to have stood at 4-3, rather than 6-1. To have won four out of seven shootouts is still a positive outcome but would not lead to Donnarumma being labelled an unbeatable keeper on penalties. Ultimately seven sets of penalties is just too small a sample size for any real conclusions to be drawn.
How Many Penalties Does He Save?
In actual fact, the former Milan goalkeeper does save a higher-than-average number of the penalties he faces. At present, he has faced 103 penalties in senior football, including all those for Milan, PSG and his country, spanning both in-game spot kicks and those in shootouts. He has saved 24 of those, giving him a save percentage of a shade over 23%.
In normal time he has saved 14 out of 60, which is actually exactly the same if we round to one decimal place, both coming in at 23.3%. Stats fans who are familiar with xG will know that most sites award an xG of 0.76 for a penalty, with this metric not used in shootouts, so only relevant to pens taken during the game.
Many fans question the merit and accuracy of xG but when it comes to penalties it is generally more accurate than for chances from open play. This is because there are fewer variables to consider and analysts can simply look at all the penalties taken and look at how many were scored and missed. Stats show that overall 76% of penalties go in and that is where the xG is derived from.
Saves 23.3% of Penalties
The initial reaction to that might be that Donnarumma is actually underperforming because whereas 24% of penalties fail to find the back of the net, the Italian “only” saves 23.3% of the ones he faces. But such a conclusion would be wrong and would miss the key distinction between a penalty being saved, and a penalty being missed.
76% of spot kicks go in, but the 24% that don’t are not all saved, as Rashford and England fans will know only too well. Some hit the post, some hit the bar and others sail well over the bar, as we’re sure Chris Waddle no doubt remembers almost as often as we do (we’re thinking of Italia ’90, for our younger readers!).
Collecting full and thorough stats about how many penalties are missed, versus how many are proactively saved by the goalie, is hard. However, in general we believe that most goalkeepers save fewer than 20% of the spot kicks they face. A figure of between 15% and 18% is more typical, with around 10% of penalties missed, though that figure may be closer to 6%. Indeed, one analysis of 536 penalties in the Champions and Europa League put the figures at 18.8% saved, 5.2% missed and 76% scored.
However we look at it though, Donnarumma’s 23%+ save ratio looks very good, and has certainly played at least some part in his six wins from seven shootouts. We just hope Jordan Pickford has been paying attention!