The Club World Cup and two age-group Euros are behind us, and whilst the women’s Euros are still ongoing, thoughts are now very much beginning to turn towards the new season. The pre-season friendlies have begun and clubs up and down the country have been active in the transfer market, trying to strengthen their squads for the season ahead.
It is hard to feel sorry for clubs who inhabit the rarefied air of the Premier League, nor for the fans of those sides. However, given the performances of the newly promoted clubs in recent years, it is clear that Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland face a huge task to stay up in the 2025/26 campaign.
Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992/93, it has been rare that all three newly promoted clubs have made an instant return to the second tier. It has happened just three times in fact. Worryingly for Leeds and the other newcomers to the division, two of those have been in the last two seasons.
Last season, Leicester City returned to the top flight optimistic after romping to the Championship title the season before. However, they ended the campaign with just 25 points. That they were 18th, ahead of Ipswich (22 points) and Southampton (who, with 12, narrowly escaped being statistically the worst side in PL history), shows just how badly the three new boys did.
A full 12 months earlier, it was a similar story, as Sheffield United managed just 16 points, behind fellow PL newcomers Burnley (24 points) and Luton (26 points). The days of the magical 40 points to secure safety seem long gone, whilst the battle at the bottom looks more daunting than ever for teams coming up into the Premier League.
Leeds Survived Last Time
Leeds fans can take hope from a few factors when it comes to their survival chances in 2025/26. First, they were undoubtedly the best side in the second tier last term. That didn’t help Leicester but it can’t hurt. Additionally, they have kept hold of almost all of their top players and have made some decent additions already. Third, in Daniel Farke, they have a man who has experience managing in the Premier League.
In some regards, that is a double-edged sword, because he lasted just one season in the top flight with Norwich in 2019/20. He earned an instant promotion with the Canaries the following season before being sacked in November 2021, with them struggling badly in the PL. Over four seasons, they finished first in the Championship, then 20th in the Premier League, first in the Champ, and last in the Premier League.
That might alarm Leeds supporters but Farke will have learnt from his experiences. More importantly, his current bosses have backed him far more significantly in the transfer market than the owners of Norwich were able to. Perhaps the biggest reason Leeds will believe they can survive is that they have done it before. Leeds won the Championship under Marcelo Bielsa in 2019/20 and the following campaign the charismatic Argentine led them to a ninth-place finish in the top tier. He was sacked with Leeds struggling in the season after that but they once again managed to avoid the drop, finishing 17th.
Sadly for them, 12 months later they were relegated, although unlike the last six teams to go down, they took the battle to the final day and only narrowly missed out. The bookies make them the third favourites to go down, but at 5/4 with some, they are certainly deemed to be in with a fighting chance of staying up.
Burnley in Danger of Becoming a Yo-Yo Side
Burnley, managed by Championship promotion expert Scott Parker, narrowly missed out on the second-tier title on the final day of the 2024/25 campaign. However, they have won that trophy twice since 2016, including in 2022/23.
Their most recent Premier League jolly, then, came in 2023/24, and lasted just 38 games. What’s more, their top-flight results had more in common with the likes of Leicester in 2024/25 than with Leeds when they last went down. Burnley lost 24 times, finished 19th and amassed just 24 points. Worryingly, for Leeds and Sunderland as much as them, that came after they had, like Leicester, stormed to glory in the Championship the season before.
The Clarets earned 101 points in 2022/23, before gaining just 24 the season after, and then 100 points last time out to once again make it to the PL. They are priced at just 2/5 for the drop this term and are in real danger of becoming a yo-yo team, too good for the Championship but not really possessing the quality for the Premier League.
Burnley went up to the top flight in 2014 under Sean Dyche but were relegated 12 months later. The board kept face with the gravel-voiced boss and a year after that he took them back up into the PL. They managed to survive for five seasons before the abovementioned relegation in 2021/22. Since then they have rebounded between the two highest tiers of English football and fans will be desperate for them not to swap divisions once again.
Black Cats Face Huge Challenge
Given that Sunderland came up through the play-offs, and finished fully 24 points behind both Leeds and Burnley, in fourth, it is clear what a huge task they will face. They have lost one of their best players too, with Jobe Bellingham following the well-worn Bellingham family path to Borussia Dortmund. They also sold another talented youngster, Tom Watson, to Brighton.
They have spent plenty of money, however, bringing in around £100m of players at the time of writing and really strengthening their midfield and attacking options. The average age of their key arrivals (the five that cost £15m and more) is just 22 though, so whilst they may have potential, they may struggle to hit the ground running in the PL.
Sunderland fans will be hugely excited about the new campaign, though, given they have spent four seasons in the third tier since they were last in the first. They may well want to forget their last campaign in the Premier League too, as they finished rock bottom in 2017 with just 24 points.
More positively, prior to that, they had enjoyed a sustained period in the top flight. They were promoted after winning the Championship way back in 2006/07. The following season they were a solid 15th, finishing as high as 10th in 2010/11. Safe to say, everyone involved with the club would be very, very happy with 17th in 2025/26!